14 Comments

Great Article Angelica!

A few quick points:

1) At $1B/300MW the AP300 would end up at about $3333/kW vs Vogtle at $15,000/kW. Now I expect that additional AP1000 builds would be cheaper but probably in the range of $5000/kW - $6000/kW. Given that I would expect the AP300 to be about $6000/kW to $9000/kW

2) The BWRX-300 is far from being the closest thing to a sure bet in the world of SMRs. NuScale solidly holds that title as they are the only ones to have made it through the design certification process and most of the way through the licensing process for the first plant. They are also the only ones with reactor vessels actively being forged. Aside from NuScale, all of these systems are still, at best, at the pre-application stage for licensing in the US. The runners up are Natrium and the Xe-100, which should be posting licensing applications for their first plants sometime around the end of 2023 to early 2024.

NuScale is by far the most mature of the systems and has the most mature cost projections. Take cost projections from all others with a grain of salt.

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Oct 16, 2023Liked by Angelica Oung

Yeah, but the X300 is based on an already licensed design from the ESBWR. So it is actually a LONG way ahead of all of the others with the exception of Nuscale. It is also conceptually designed based on the Dodeward plant that operated for a long time.

The unknowns for the X300 are the containment construction technique underground, although it looks like a cool technology with promise.

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One thing Mystery Judge pointed out was their desire to shed the ECCS (emergency core cooling system). That was in the ESBWR.

So while the BWRX-300 is indeed based on the ESBWR, there are significant differences enough that I don’t thinking the licensing journey will be a slam dunk by any means.

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Slam dunk no, but most of the systems, fuel, etc. are already licensed so they do have quite an advantage. They still have an ECCS, but it is just a passive system driven by natural circulation rather than pumps.

In my experience in pharmaceuticals, regulators love “innovation” when it comes in a package that looks exactly like something they are already familiar with. The X-300 design is probably a nice Goldilocks combo of similarity and new ideas that could actually reduce costs. The prototypes in Darlington and Oak Ridge will be the test!

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Great points Josh! There’s something so important about that maturity that we shouldn’t forget. But hasn’t committing to that giant swimming pool doomed NuScale to being an expensive SMR, especially with fewer modules in the pool?

Interesting about the AP1000 cost estimates vs AP300. Jigar Shah already tweeted that BWRX-300 costs would be more like 2B/300MW so that would still make the AP300 competitive if they come in at the low end of that.

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And concrete / civil works is where many a project problem has been...

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Given they are using either half the number of the same equipment (steambgens, pumps), or like 3/4 sized equipment (RPV, fuel), is there any way you can see it being any less than 1/2 the total cost of an AP1000. So if an AP1000 would be $6B (in your range given) how does an AP300 get under $3B, or $10/W?

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I would expect if there were problems at whole system levels that would have been flagged in the CNSC VDRs. And it's in the "license to construct application phase there now" and the CNSC and NRC have said they are cooperating closely on this.

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Oct 16, 2023Liked by Angelica Oung

Excellent head to head overview of SMRs. Much better to see them analyzed against one another versus standalone bragging and complaining.

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Thanks Frank! Maybe I’ll do a similar roundup for microreactors some time!

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Oct 18, 2023·edited Oct 18, 2023

I think I heard a Decouple episode mention that the cost recovery for an SMR factory arrives at 10 GW. I will feel very lucky if someone approaches this without funding from a large state actor

Maybe if you get 1/3 of the way you have enough steam to make it - that would be about a dozen 300 MW units. Compared to the cost of the Energiewend pushing three or so designs up the hill to see if they roll seems justified

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I think an interesting comparison is Holtec vs NuScale. They have similar size shells, with similar power per shell. NuScale tries to cram everything into one shell per unit, Holtec uses two paired but different close coupled shells. (2 shells per unit and with 2x the power per unit).

NuScale fabrication looks way, way more challenging. That helical SG looks like a beast to fabricate!

Holtec has dome thermal expansion aspects to manage (straight fixed tubesheet SG, not a U-tube) but fabracability looks in line with traditional HEX fabrication methods.

It will be interesting to see how.much civil complexity there will be with 3 or 6 Holtec units vs a single 6 12 NuScale pack.

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This was a fun read!

Man that Nuward design looks like a jumbled mess. There is probably more space on a nuclear submarine...

Can they actually refuel while the 2nd unit is running? If so that is pretty cool. Although with SMRs you would probably always have multiple reactors on a site that could back each other up.

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Super review! Thank you!

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