Can Energy Security Trump Politics in Taiwan?

If all goes according to plan for the ruling DPP, Taiwan’s last nuclear reactor will shut down in 2025. But there are signs that a historic U-turn could be in the making.

The year was 2007. An official from the office of the then-DPP President Chen Shui-bian made a discreet visit to the construction site of the embattled Fourth Nuclear Power Plant, Lungmen.

"We were ready to present," a senior manager at the meeting recalls, preferring anonymity, "but she said, 'I've read all the reports, so let's skip the PowerPoint. Tell me what you need to finish this build, and I'll make it happen.'"

The team's answer was straightforward: qualified Taipower employees, rebar-tying skilled laborers from Thailand, and a substantial amount of gravel.

The official assured them, "You'll have what you need." Before departing, she added, "This visit comes with great political risk. But the plant's success is crucial for Taiwan's future. Ensure it's done."

Resources promised swiftly arrived, and with renewed vigor and purpose, the pace of construction quickened. By the time President Ma Ying-jeou decided to halt the project, Unit 1 was nearly operational.

Why dredge up this anecdote from 2007? Because the official who made that pivotal visit was Tsai Ing-wen, then Vice Premier, who later ascended to the presidency advocating for a "Nuclear-free homeland." It's the same Tsai who, not long ago, campaigned against the Lungmen plant she had once fought to save, branding it a "dangerous Franken-reactor."

Fast forward to 2024, what can we learn from the curious vignette almost 20 years ago? I believe on the leadership level, the Democratic Progressive Party is internally well-aware of Taiwan’s intrinsic need for atomic energy. But on a political level, they are under tremendous pressure to stick to the party’s anti-nuclear legacy. As a DPP-camp friend said to me: “for many Taiwanese, their minds are made up when it comes to nuclear. The fight against nuclear power is inextricably connected in their minds with the struggle for democracy.” What to say against that?

As Tsai prepares to leave office to be replaced by her veep, Lai Ching-te however, there are definite signs that something is beginning to shift in the previously impervious DPP public anti-nuclear public line.

Right before Lunar New Year, Minister of Economic Affairs Wang Mei-hua quietly dropped this at a year’s-end presser after years of denying that it’s desirable or even possible for Taiwan to keep using nuclear power beyond 2025:

“In the face of new public sentiments and a new legislature, the Ministry of Economic Affairs will assiduously carry out the the preparatory work ahead of life-extensions [for the 2nd and 3rd Nuclear Power Plant].”

“New Public Sentiments”

The “new public sentiments” language (新民意) has been parroted not just by Wang but other bureaucrats. There hasn’t been any recent polls on this issue to my knowledge. She also makes it clear that the administration is not taking the lead on this change, just doing the leg work in case the legislature pushes this issue forward. More cynical observers might say now that the election is over, it’s now safer for the DPP to touch if not hold this hot potato.

As a long-time observer of Taiwan’s energy policy, I’d say that the “no nuclear homeland” policy is one blackout away from being chucked into the dustbins of history. But nothing is a slam-dunk.

For the DPP, it would be quite convenient for the opposition KMT and TPP parties to co-sponsor a bill that will call for the laws to be changed and grant NPP 2 and 3 a life-extension. They can facilitate that, while saying they haven’t changed their desire to phase out nuclear power. Taiwan’s short-term energy crunch will be relieved by those life extensions, which will amount to about 10-12% of the grid.

But the KMT is sure to have their own agenda. A big part of why they are pro-nuclear in the first place is because energy insecurity is a great cudgel to beat the ruling party over the head with. This might not be a problem they are so eager to solve for the DPP. Like the Republican Party in the US when it comes to the immigration bill, they might find it more politically expeditious so stand back and fold their arms while Taiwan’s strained power system get tested again this summer.

Moreover, it would be far healthier for Taiwan is an actual policy position change from the DPP. For one thing, in order to decarbonize just turning on old reactors is necessary, but not enough for Taiwan. A national new-build program is necessary.

The case for new nuclear

To illustrate the necessity of new nuclear for Taiwan, look at the chart below. It is a part of my work with Finnish Energy Analyst Rauli Partenan, to be published in a few months as the Taiwan Energy Future Puzzle report. It is a simple extrapolation of what Taiwan’s grid mix is going to do based on the National Development Council’s Net Zero 2050 roadmap, low case:

Taiwan’s historic and projected electricity generation in the Low Case of the Net-Zero 2050 Roadmap

To anybody that knows anything about energy, this plan is so challenging as to be obvious non-sense. For one thing, Taiwan as an isolated grid is very unlikely to absorb the massive amounts of wind and solar needed, about 50% of our planned 2050 grid.

But what’s interesting is that even if we return nuclear power to its previous peak, the situation is improved at the margins, but not substantially changed. In order for nuclear to provide a substantial contribution to decarbonization, we are going to need more reactors. This is not something that can be pushed through with a passive posture. We are going to need leadership from the ruling party and a consensus from all parties in Taiwan that some issues like energy are too important to be played purely for politics.

Some will say this is a pipe dream, but VP Lai will be getting a fresh mandate when he start as president in May. We hope that by elevating the conversation around nuclear energy as a national security as well as an economic and public well-being issue, Taiwan can transcend the anti-nuclear politics it has been mired in and return to the truth that President Tsai knew in her heart when she made that visit to the 4th Nuclear Power Plant all these years ago: The future of Taiwan needs nuclear.

With leadership and forethought, the story of nuclear in Taiwan need not be one that started in authoritarianism and ended by democracy, but a continuing asset for Taiwan that continues to support our prosperity, security, and sovereignty.