What's going on in Iran?

The IAEA issued a report criticizing Iran's "lack of co-operation." Just days later, Israeli strikes started hitting Iran.

For the first time in 20 years, UN nuclear watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations.

"Iran's many failures to uphold its obligations since 2019 to provide the agency with full and timely co-operation regarding undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple undeclared locations in Iran... constitutes non-compliance with its obligations.”

As a result, the IAEA is “not able to verify that there has been no diversion of nuclear material required to be safeguarded,” said the Agency’s report, as seen by the BBC.

Just one day after the release of the report, on the 13th of June, Israeli air strikes and missile bombardments fell on Iran, killing top generals and nuclear scientists. Since then the two sides have traded missile salvos and Iran’s nuclear talks with the United States have been derailed. While the ongoing situation still falls short of war, the threat of escalation is very real, especially with the possibility of the United States joining the conflict on Israel’s side.

Although here at Elemental we usually focus on the civilian use side of nuclear, we’re going to take a deep dive today on the current situation in Iran, with a special focus on assessing how close Iran is in fact to a nuclear weapons, and the prospects for stopping them by destroying its program physically, versus through diplomacy.

Their Radionuclides’ Keeper

“Safeguarding” is one of those special words with a different, highly specific meaning in the nuclear context than the ordinary one. Specifically, it is used in the nuclear non-proliferation world to describe the technical measures put in place to make sure that nuclear materials are not being misused for atomic weapons. Think of it as keeping inventory very carefully on the material that can be used to make a bomb. The IAEA effectivly made the charge that Iran could have socked some highly-enriched fissile material to make a bomb later.

This is not to say that they did. Days later, IAEA Directorate General Rafael Mariano Grossi told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour: “We did not have any proof of a systematic effort to move into a nuclear weapon.”

I can’t help but feel like it would have been helpful if DG Grossi made this clarification clearly with the report, before the bombs started falling. Or maybe he did but nobody cared.

The Israeli authorities pointed directly to the IAEA’s declaration of Iran’s non-compliance to assert that Iran has “crossed a red line,” meriting Operation Rising Lion.

Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program: A look back

Iran has been under trade sanctions for 46 years, ever since Ayatollah Khomeni’s Islamic Revolution overthrew the US-backed secular monarch Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi while chanting “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.” But surprisingly, Iran’s nuclear program was aimed not at either of those countries, but at Iran’s neighbor Iraq.

Ayatollah Khomeni was actually anti any kind of nuclear when he first seized power in 1979. He saw nuclear energy, which was a fond dream of the Shah, as a western decadence and cancelled Iran’s ongoing nuclear programs and kicked out foreign experts.

He didn’t experience a change of heart until neighboring Iraq declared war on Iran. Back then, the west still backed Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein, who did not have nuclear weapons, but used chemical weapons liberally — mustard gas, tabun, sarin nerve agents. Tens of thousands of Iranian troops perished, and Tehran’s appeals to the UN fell on deaf ears.

This led to the restart of Iran’s nuclear programs not as projects of peace, but with the goal of obtaining nuclear weapon capability.

The rise and fall of the JCPOA

According to a widely-cited 2007 National Intelligence Estimate report, Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003. This changed the perception of Iran as a rising danger when it comes to nuclear proliferation and allowed the proper policy environment for Iran to be engaged diplomatically on the subject of nuclear disarmament. Iran badly wanted the nuclear-related sanctions to be lifted, and the west badly wanted to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program wasn’t just halted, but dismantled.

The result was the Obama Era JCPOA — Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. This is one of the most ambitious arms control deal ever, and on a technical level, it ticked all the boxes.

In return for sanction relief, Iran would limit its uranium enrichment limit to 3.67%. Recall that anything below 5% is commonly considered Low-Enriched Uranium. This will allow Iran to continue to enrich Uranium for civilian power reactors, without the ability generate any weapons grade material. Iran also committed to cutting its stockpile of enriched Uranium by 97% and dismantle two-thirds of its centrifuges. The Arak reactor will be redesigned to prevent Plutonium production, and Iran would open itself to continual IAEA inspections of its enrichment facility.

Between 2015 and 2018, the IAEA affirmed over a dozen times that Iran was in full compliance with the JCPOA.

I think the unpalatable lesson the world is teaching every country that has eyes to see is that flirting with nuclear weapons is far more dangerous than just going straight to nuclear-capable status. Ukraine, Libya and now Iran have now come under attack after either giving up their capabilities or restraining the last step of development.

What Now?

For now a delicate ceasefire is holding between Israel and Iran, although it feels less like a peace and more like a pause for both sides to load up for the next round of conflict. The IAEA has been expelled from Iran, and we must conclude there is very little visibility now into the status of their program. While President Trump appears sure that the deep underground facility at Fordow has been completely destroyed, other analysts conclude the program has been set back by months, not years.

The true course to preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was never going to be curbing their technology, but reaching an agreement on the negotiating table. However, with a number of negotiators killed by Israeli air strikes, it’s hard to see a way to another version of JCPOA.

THE ELEMENTAL TAKE

As the old order of the world begin to break down we are going to see more conflicts between middle powers testing each other’s mettle. Israel was coming off a string of success dismantling not just Iranian proxies like Hezbollah but even played a part in dismantling Syria’s Assad. They must have wondered if taking down Iran might be as simple as kicking down a broken door.

Unfortunately, even in its sclerotic and dysfunctional state, Iran is a real regional power, and air strikes alone will not somehow induce regime change. But it did derail the negotiation process. It might be a long time before we see IAEA inspectors in Iran again.

As an American citizen, perhaps the most disquieting takeaway from the episode is how the tempo and participation of America’s involvement seems to be dictated not from Washington but from Tel Aviv. A delicate trust has been broken, and it will not easily be regained.